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ChapterCH05 Chapter 5 of 12

Prioritise and choose

What should we do now, prepare, test or avoid?

An opportunity is an evidence-backed possibility for changing a valuable decision. An alert merely says something moved. Turn the alert into a customer, an intervention, an owner and a comparison before funding it.

The priority screen

ModelM05Model

First remove prohibited, unaffordable and unexecutable actions. Then compare commercial value, applicability, evidence and feasibility qualitatively. Frequency is useful only where each decision has improvement headroom. A high-volume activity already performed well can be a poor investment.

Priority Use when Required next decision
Do now A material supported repair or intervention is ready, owned and proportionate Execute with an appropriate readout
Prepare Value is plausible but a relevant blocking prerequisite is missing Fund only the specific gap, with a cap and date
Experiment Uncertainty is material and a feasible comparison can inform the choice Approve a bounded learning tranche
Avoid No available action, adequate comparator wins, risk is unacceptable or cost cannot be justified Reject or retire; state what evidence could reopen it

Do not multiply five subjective scores and interpret the product as ROI. Use ranges and a written trade-off. Protect committed budgets, brand and future demand, essential service, cash limits and valid experiments. Check whether people, not just money, can move.

Qualitative choices, not ROI multiplication. Use this model with the conditions and limits described above.

Choose the next feasible tranche

Present the smallest usable investment amount, its expected net contribution range, time to benefit, confidence, delivery capacity and reversal cost. Compare acquisition with activation, retention, product, sales and service only where horizons and resource rights can be made comparable. Keep a no-change option.

If the choice reverses under plausible customer value or response assumptions, buy information or use a smaller reversible step. When choices remain incomparable, the budget owner makes the strategic trade-off explicitly. An optimiser cannot manufacture budget mobility or eliminate uncertainty.

The Play Library provides access by business problem, customer stage, decision, capability, readiness and function. Its ranking is an editorial starting order, not a funding instruction. P01’s minimum economic setup can be part of the chosen intervention; it need not become a separate transformation project.

Your next move
Use T1 to compare one intervention, one repaired conventional alternative and no change. Put the most important uncertainty beside the proposed commitment.

Related

Evidence for this chapter2claims reviewed, with confidence ratings, limits and sources.

Claim classifications

Accepted means a principle or mechanism survived critical review, not that it guarantees a return. Accepted with conditions means prerequisites apply. Qualified means the original claim has been narrowed. Advanced needs substantial readiness. Experimental needs a capped comparison. Unresolved means the evidence cannot settle the claim. Rejected means the recommendation is excluded.

High, Medium and Low describe confidence in the stated target, not the chance of a positive ROI. For a Qualified or Rejected historical claim, confidence applies to the decision to narrow or reject it and to the supported limit—not to the original headline. Read the headline and classification together. An accounting identity or design principle is not empirical evidence of a commercial outcome. Follow the linked chapters, Plays and tools to see where each claim applies.