ChapterCH04 Chapter 4 of 12

Diagnose the constraint and readiness

Is the problem demand, product, economics, execution or evidence?

Start with the commercial problem and verify the measurement before explaining movement. A tracking change can resemble a demand collapse. A change in cohort mix can resemble deteriorating execution. Use customer evidence to distinguish these from an actual product, proposition or service failure.

Problem to Play router

Problem or signal	Check first	Likely route once supported
CAC rises	Definitions, duplicate customers, outcome lag and attribution changes	P01 if economics or tracking is unreliable
CAC rises with higher click cost	Intent mix, competition, saturation and incremental response	P03 acquisition quality; P04 acquisition incrementality
Traffic arrives but fewer valuable actions complete	Device errors, eligibility, promise/price clarity, traffic quality and service capacity	P02 remove the dominant constraint; P05 proposition learning
Signups do not experience value	Onboarding steps, setup failures and product/service needs	P06 first value activation
Customers leave or require incentives	Churn cause, addressability, treatment history and net offer economics	P07 addressable retention
Growth is limited by demand or awareness	Real customer need, proposition, reach and distribution	P09 evidence, then P03 or P05; preserve longer horizons
Customers could gain more useful value	Unmet needs, suitability, capacity and cannibalisation	P08 relevant expansion
More reporting yields few actions	Decision ownership, authority and delivery capacity	P11 accountable investment review
Repeated work is expensive or slow	Accepted-work baseline, review cost and process defects	P10 one workflow redesign
A successful pilot cannot be reused	Transferability, support, training and old-work retirement	P12 replicate and retire

Treat this as a diagnostic route, not a claim that one symptom proves a cause. Inspect demand, awareness, traffic, audience quality, proposition, pricing, conversion, activation, product, capacity, retention, expansion, measurement, execution and economics. Rank the loss that is both material and addressable. Optimising downstream of the binding constraint often offers limited value; increasing traffic to broken onboarding can increase waste.

One capability map

Capability domain	What must exist for the selected decision	Play and working record
Strategy, proposition and opportunity	A customer problem, strategic boundaries and a feasible choice	P02, P05, P09, P11; T1
Market and customer intelligence	Relevant, attributable evidence with limits	P09; T1 and T3
Customer economics	Agreed cost, cohort, value and horizon	P01; T2
Acquisition and distribution	Eligible demand, proposition, channel access and quality feedback	P03, P04; T1–T3
Conversion, experience and activation	Visible friction and a deliverable repair or useful intervention	P02, P06; T1 and T4
Lifecycle, retention and expansion	Need states, legitimate contact and available treatments	P07, P08; T1, T2 and T4
Creative and brand	Substantiated concepts, approved assets and learning capacity	P05; T3 and T4
Measurement, experimentation and learning	Appropriate comparison, valid readout and evidence reuse	P04; every Play’s T3
Data and technology	Relevant identities, outcomes, quality and working interfaces	P01, P10, P12; T4 and T5
Automation and selective AI	Stable workflow or justified interpretation step with evaluation	P10; T4
Operations, people and governance	Decision rights, funded capacity, safeguards and support	P11, P12; T4 and T5

Assess readiness by dimension

ModelM04Model

For each relevant capability write Current evidence → Required for this Play → Gap → Owner → Next action. Classify gaps as Blocking, Value limiting, Scale limiting or Optional. Do not average them. Strong creative skill cannot cancel absent contact permission; strong data cannot supply missing treatment authority.

Use three configuration terms consistently. Basic means manual or native execution with decision-specific facts and oversight. Connected means repeatable, traceable handoffs used across relevant systems. Advanced means a separately justified specialist model, shared service or bounded dynamic workflow. These describe configurations, not organisational worth. Experimental is an evidence status, not a higher maturity level.

Small firms can keep one owner, ordinary tools and a specialist adviser. Mid-market firms may share scarce method and operations capacity. Enterprises need stronger boundaries where data, permissions or consequences cross domains. Size alone does not justify a hub, graph, streaming estate or permanent pods.

Your next move

Fill T1’s constraint view and T5’s readiness view for one Play. Repair only the gaps that block that decision.

No aggregate score. Use this model with the conditions and limits described above.

Evidence for this chapter2claims reviewed, with confidence ratings, limits and sources.

Claim classifications

Accepted means a principle or mechanism survived critical review, not that it guarantees a return. Accepted with conditions means prerequisites apply. Qualified means the original claim has been narrowed. Advanced needs substantial readiness. Experimental needs a capped comparison. Unresolved means the evidence cannot settle the claim. Rejected means the recommendation is excluded.

High, Medium and Low describe confidence in the stated target, not the chance of a positive ROI. For a Qualified or Rejected historical claim, confidence applies to the decision to narrow or reject it and to the supported limit—not to the original headline. Read the headline and classification together. An accounting identity or design principle is not empirical evidence of a commercial outcome. Follow the linked chapters, Plays and tools to see where each claim applies.