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ToolT3

Decision experiment and evidence record

Views: Measurement plan and experiment brief · Signed readout and performance review · Reusable learning object

Connect a question to valid evidence and an actual decision.

Interpretation: An inconclusive result is not proof of no effect; a statistically detectable effect is not automatically worth buying.

Use these five templates to keep a record of the work. Each template has views for different tasks; they do not require separate systems or registers. Copy the fields your Play needs and link the records with one intervention ID. Record the owner, version and review date. Leave missing information explicit: a blank field does not mean approval.

Measurement plan and experiment brief

Decision ID / experiment ID / version / owner / method reviewer:
BUSINESS QUESTION and decision the result will change:
PRIMARY OUTCOME and economic horizon:
BASELINE: value, definition, date and uncertainty:
HYPOTHESIS and commercial mechanism:
TREATMENT: exact version, population, eligibility and delivery:
COMPARATOR: status quo, repaired process or explicit no-treatment condition:
ASSIGNMENT UNIT and method:
ESTIMAND: whose effect over what horizon, usually all assigned eligible units:
LEADING INDICATORS and why they are informative:
ECONOMIC METRIC and Finance cost convention:
ATTRIBUTION LIMITATION: what platform/journey credit cannot establish:
INCREMENTALITY METHOD and identifying assumptions:
FEASIBILITY: useful effect, variance, sample/power or identification limits:
DURATION: enrolment, outcome maturation and planned readout:
INTEGRITY: spillover, missingness, sample ratio, concurrent changes, compliance:
GUARDRAILS and immediate safety stops:
ANALYSIS: tested method/code, multiplicity and interim-review rule:
DECISION RULE: local scale/validate/revise/stop thresholds fixed before exposure:
COST AND CAPACITY: learning cap, analyst/reviewer and delivery time:

Choose randomised individual/account assignment if valid; geographic or other designs if exposure and spillover require them; qualified observational analysis when experimental identification is infeasible. Explain limitations. Do not delay necessary safeguards or obvious repairs to manufacture a control.

Signed readout and performance review

What was delivered versus planned, with assignment and outcome completeness:
Primary outcome, effect estimate and interval/range:
Economic result, full costs, cash consequence and guardrails:
Estimate basis: observed / attributed / modelled / forecast (record the applicable basis):
Identification: descriptive association / causal estimate / unresolved; method and assumptions:
Deviations, contamination, alternative explanations and limitations:
Contradictory platform, cohort, experiment, aggregate and Finance evidence:
Reconciliation: entity, metric, denominator, period, spend and assumptions:
Decision: continue / validate / revise / stop; owner and exact action:
Why this beats the available alternative or why the conclusion is unresolved:
Next readout and what evidence would reverse the decision:
Method sign-off / Finance sign-off / accountable decision owner:

Reusable learning object

Evidence ID / linked decision and Play version:
Type: fact / finding / hypothesis / decision / learning
Claim and exact population, product, treatment, geography and horizon:
Source, source date and reproducible result:
Method, sample, effect, uncertainty and limitations:
Confidence: High / Medium / Low; in which proposition?
Applicability / exclusions / conflicting findings:
Reviewer, review date and effective date:
Expiry or retest trigger; supersedes/contradicts references:
Next decision that used this evidence and resulting change:

30-minute readout: The method owner explains what can be concluded; Finance reconciles costs; the decision owner chooses an action. If evidence is immature, record the next review within the learning cap. Preserve negative and invalid results. An AI draft is never self-promoted to authoritative evidence.

Evidence for this tool3claims reviewed, with confidence ratings, limits and sources.

Claim classifications

Accepted means a principle or mechanism survived critical review, not that it guarantees a return. Accepted with conditions means prerequisites apply. Qualified means the original claim has been narrowed. Advanced needs substantial readiness. Experimental needs a capped comparison. Unresolved means the evidence cannot settle the claim. Rejected means the recommendation is excluded.

High, Medium and Low describe confidence in the stated target, not the chance of a positive ROI. For a Qualified or Rejected historical claim, confidence applies to the decision to narrow or reject it and to the supported limit—not to the original headline. Read the headline and classification together. An accounting identity or design principle is not empirical evidence of a commercial outcome. Follow the linked chapters, Plays and tools to see where each claim applies.